Let's Talk Defense

Defensive Rating, New rotations, and more Luka

I expect the Maverick's defense to significantly improve with the addition of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford strengthening our bench. I've mentioned in a previous blog that a starting lineup of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Derrick Jones Jr., and Dereck Lively II is 2ND in the NBA in defensive rating. A lot of folks aren't 100% positive on what defensive rating is, so let's break it down. 

Defensive rating is a statistic formulated by Dean Oliver in 2004. It's an individual breakdown of a player's efficiency on defense. The lower the number the better. The formula for DEFrtg (Players Steals*Blocks) + Opponents Differential= 1/5 of possessions - Times blown by + Deflections * OAPDW( Official Adjusted Players Defensive Withstand). Now, a bad defender on a good defensive lineup will often have a better DEFrtg than a good defender on a bad defensive lineup. Defensive Rating more often than not is influenced by teammates. For example, NBA.com has Victor Wembanyama with a defensive rating of 113.1, which is great, but San Antonio has a terrible lineup. On the other hand, Dean Wade has a defensive rating of 102.6 but is nowhere near the level of defensive talent as Wembanyama though has a great defensive rating due to the Cleveland Cavaliers being a great defensive team. Now I didn't go pick a random guy in Dean Wade who plays 5 minutes a game and is at the top of the leaderboard for nothing, Dean only plays 6 fewer minutes per game than Victor. 

With that being said a case can be made that Lukas DEFrtg on that lineup that is 2ND in the league would be phony, but I stumbled across another great stat today that honestly surprised me. Via. NBA District, here are the top 10 Isolation defenders in the League. (ppp is points per possession for the ball handler)

1. Keegan Murray .56ppp on 59 Possessions

2. Max Strus .67ppp on 52 Possessions

3. Kevin Durant (Underrated Defender IMO) .67ppp on 55 Possessions

4. Jalen Johnson .69ppp on 52 Possessions

5. Rudy Gobert .70 on 73 Possessions

6. Anthony Davis .71ppp on 51 Possessions

7. Lauri Markkanen .72ppp on 50 Possessions

8. Nikola Vucevic .76ppp on 80 Possessions

9. Onyeka Okongwu .77ppp on 65 Possessions

10. Luka Doncic .79ppp on 71 Possessions

Stats don't lie and neither does this list. Luka has the 10th-best points per possession in isolation with the 3rd-best possession count. Now, Lukas's individual defensive rating is terrible, at 117.4, but the reason for that is most likely the bench minutes and rotations he plays with. Now I am not pushing an agenda that Luka is a great defender, because he isn't, rather I am trying to push the notion that he isn't a terrible one. The eye test proves this point as well, with Lukas's defensive mechanics and effort greatly improving from last season when he was a terrible defender. 

When we look to the future for the Mavericks defense, we have some great hope. P.J. Washington was 3rd in DEFrtg for players that played over 25 Minutes for the Hornets this season. Daniel Gafford was also 3rd on his team in defensive rating for players who played over 25 minutes. The biggest impact that these 2 guys are going to have on this defensive rotation is rim protection with different rotations. When Dereck Lively is healthy we will have a shot-blocking rim protector on the floor at all times. Previously help defense didn't exist with the bench+ rotations, but now we can hope to see some better ratings from the team.

Unfortunately, DL2 is still out for the Wizards game tonight at 7:30, but Big Dan Dan will be playing for his homecoming to Washington only a few days after his departure.